Leaders of over 190 countries are meeting today until 11 December at COP21 in Paris, in the hope of reaching an agreement to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.
Despite countries saying they will cut their carbon emissions, according to scientists the world is on course for a rise beyond the threshold where global warming becomes catastrophic and irreversible, estimated as a temperature rise of 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The Earth’s temperature is already 1°C above – so we’re halfway to the 2°C limit agreed by world leaders in Copenhagen in 2009.
This may sound like a welcome increase in temperature in the UK but with current emissions trajectories, some scientists believe we are heading for a rise of about 5°C. The temperature difference between today’s world and the last ice age was about 5°C.
Recently, scientists confirmed that carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere has crossed the 400 parts per million threshold; to safeguard a stable climate, our limit should be around 350ppm. The last time levels were this high was more than three million years ago.
The signs are clear, and to avoid the very dangerous tipping point we are on course for, COP21 is make or break.
And so what for our health? Well, everything relies on a stable biosphere, which is very much at risk.
Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, believes the health dangers posed by climate change have been seriously underestimated. There’s no question that it is already affecting public health, and according to a WHO study, worldwide deaths caused by climate change are projected to increase to 250,000 per year by 2040.
High temperatures are linked to air pollution, causing respiratory and cardiovascular problems, especially among children and older people. Between seven and eight million premature deaths a year result from respiratory diseases – significantly higher than malaria (around 600,000 deaths per year) and HIV (between one and two million deaths a year).
Heat waves and flooding are changing the distribution of vector-borne diseases, with potential future epidemics of dengue fever and other tropical diseases – including yellow fever and West Nile fever – affecting people in the UK. Serious dengue outbreaks only affected seven countries back in the 1970s, but today more than 100 countries have seen outbreaks – including in Spain, Italy and Florida in the USA. There is no known vaccine and no specific treatment.
The impact of climate change on mental health has only begun to be recognised in the last decade.
Rescue and public health services are also impacted. Floods affect access to hospital services, especially as lower floors are where heavy medical equipment is often kept, reducing capacity to cope with disaster and care for existing patients.
There are also indirect health risks, largely due to deterioration or contamination of the environment. Floods can carry pollutants and chemicals from industrial facilities, waste water, and sewage water, leading to contamination of drinking water and agricultural land.
This isn’t an opening sequence of some post-apocalyptic film – it’s a very real threat being argued by leading medical experts.
After the failed Copenhagen summit in 2009, which tried to impose top-down carbon emission targets, the hope is that further steps can be taken at COP21 to limit the temperature rise to 2°C. This time, the world’s governments have been asked to draw up their own plans to control emissions, which are not up for negotiation.
Already there is hope – most significantly, China and US (whose wranglings at Copenhagen ultimately led to its failure) are collaborating on driving the bargaining following their agreement on clean-up measures. So far 178 nations – representing 95% of the world’s greenhouse gas emitters, have announced commitments to control them.
Whilst these are only commitments and need to be followed up with rapid action, if nations can meet and agree equitable goals on the climate, it will be a triumph for international cooperation, for our security, health and wellbeing in the future.
To see how we can all make a difference visit http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/climate-friendly-habits